Binghamton University
2023-08-18
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Democracy is fragile to the extent it relies on broadly held agreement that:
the rules of democracy are fixed and not up for debate.
losing elections is ok.
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democratic consolidation is when a “particular system of institutions become the only game in town, when no one can imagine acting outside the democratic institutions, when all the losers want to do is to try again within the same institutions under which they have just lost.” (Przeworski 1991, 26)
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Democratic governance makes losing acceptable because losers’ rights are protected, and because losers will have future chances to contest elections.
“Democracy is a system in which parties lose elections … It is only when there are parties that lose and when losing is neither a social disgrace nor a crime that democracy flourishes.” (Przeworski 1991, p 10)
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Democracy is resilient if/when:
masses can organize and mobilize; even the threat of mobilization is powerful. Restrictions on assembly are especially dangerous (curfews, SoEs).
institutions can resist individuals to protect the “rules of the game.”
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Challenges to the “rules of the game” in various forms:
elected leaders try to extend and overstay their terms.
leaders/parties try to change rules about citizenship, suffrage, or absentee voting to their advantages.
governments limit how civilians can oppose changes to the rules, eg through repression, States of Emergency, curfews.
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Versteeg et al. (2020) measure leaders’ attempts to overstay their terms in office since 2000; they identify 234 elected terms of which there are:
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| Attempts | Successes | Failures |
|---|---|---|
| 59 | 34 | 25 |
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They identify several strategies by which leaders have sought to evade term limits:
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The MERC project (Andy Foote) documents efforts since 1990 to change laws regulating citizenship, suffrage, or absentee voting.
| Attempts | Successes | Failures |
|---|---|---|
| 285 | 191 | 49 |
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Have increased since 2010; are credited with some of the failed efforts to overstay elected terms.
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Attempts to overstay tend to happen in democracies.
Attempts in democracies are more likely to fail.
States with populist leaders/governments are more likely to attempt to overstay (Global Populism Database, Hawkins et al.).
Organized protests deter overstaying attempts and increase the chances of failure.
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Democracies are most at risk for manipulation laws.
Manipulation efforts are more likely to fail in stronger democracies.
Organized protests are associated with failed manipulation attempts.
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Outside the pandemic, SoEs are common way for leaders to limit protests. Organized protest movements play an interesting role in SoE declarations.
Organization refines purpose and method of protests, and creates costs for repression. [This may mean organizers attract repression prior to protests.]
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Populism is not the cause of this, but is correlated with it. Populism:
points to the status quo as the root of the problem (often, the corruption of the status quo)
points to crises (economic, corruption, immigration) as cause for changing rules
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We often think about aggregate indicators of regime when we talk about backsliding. Democracy is at risk to the extent its participants cannot count on the validity of losing elections, or where the rules of democracy themselves are under debate.
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What mechanisms underlie democratic resistance to assaults on democracy?
What makes democracies able to defend the “rules of the game?”
What mobilizes protesters in defense of democracy?